Assessment of Settlement Baseline Methods for Ontario Power Authority's Commercial & Industrial Event Based Demand Response Programs

This report evaluates the accuracy of current and alternate baselines used for settlement of Ontario Power Authority’s (OPA) large commercial and industrial Demand Response Program (DR).

In total, 48 baseline methods were tested using a year of unperturbed pre-enrolment data from 95 customers. The evaluations presented here were designed to identify a baseline methodology that:

  • Is accurate for both small and large customers; 
  • Is fair across settlement accounts and customers; 
  • Avoids extreme errors that could negatively affect individual settlement payments; and 
  • Is accurate not only for the most common event window but across all event windows. 

In other words, the optimal baseline must provide OPA and program participants with small load-impact errors and therefore small settlement payment errors on average (accuracy), must have a narrow distribution of errors across accounts (fairness), and must lack extreme errors at the settlement account or individual customer level.

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