A National Assessment of Demand Response Potential

Freeman, Sullivan & Co. (FSC), The Brattle Group (TBG), and Global Energy Partners (GEP) developed the first nationwide, bottom-up study of demand response (DR) potential using a state-by-state approach. The report provides, for the first time, estimates of demand response potential for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Estimates of demand response potential are provided for several customer segments and scenarios that vary with respect to the penetration of technologies, such as Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and programmable thermostats, dynamic pricing and other DR programs. FSC was the lead contractor on development of the DR potential model and also developed state and customer-segment level load shapes that were used as starting points for estimating demand response. Some highlights from the study include:

  • The current DR resources in the U.S. amount to 38 GW by 2019, or 4% of the U.S. system peak. 
  • Based on existing technology and infrastructure plans, DR potential could be expanded up to 82 GW by 2019, the equivalent of reducing 9%of the projected U.S. system peak. 
  • With full deployment of AMI, enabling the adoption of dynamic tariffs, DR potential could be expanded to 138 GW by 2019, the equivalent of reducing 14% of projected U.S. system peak. 
  • DR potential estimates for each state and the District of Columbia were developed as part of the study. 
  • The study led to the development of an internally consistent, state-by-state database containing all inputs needed to do a bottom-up estimate of demand response potential. 
  • Historical hourly usage data from twenty-one states was used to develop hourly load shapes for four customer classes for each state. 
  • The report synthesizes elasticities and impact estimates from 15 dynamic pricing pilots in order to produce dynamic pricing impact estimates for each state that take into account differences in central air conditioning (CAC) saturation for residential customers, climate, and the effect of enabling technology. 

Read the Full Report